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Anna Karenina

Theres not much hope of this movie making it into the Top 10 ,but theres a good chance of Keira Knightley getting a nomination for Best Actress.

Brave #2

Unlike Up & Toy Story 3 ,Brave isnt worthy to get a Best Picture nomination.

TDKR #4

Theres a slight possibility TDKR might edge itself into the Top 10 Best Picture nominees but winning it is quite impossible.
The Nolan Bros deserve a nomination for the Adapted Screenplay.

TDKR #5

The cast of the Dark Knight Trilogy are solid and have given amazing performances.Christian will miss out on Best Actor ,Anne is set for Best Actress for Les Miserables .Gary Oldman ,Micheal Caine & Morgan have been ignored from the days of Batman Begins.Tom Hardy has less than 10%chance to make it through.

Hobbit

Hobbit is a lock for technical awards ,but for the major categories?Based on initial reviews ,Hobbit will make it through for Adapted Screenplay if the competition is light.

Hotel Transylvania

One of the big animated hits of 2012 ,Hotel T has a good chance to be one of the 5 animated movie nominees.

Madagascar 3

Its a great movie and might get a nomination ,but winning it is quite difficult.

Moonrise Kingdom

Wes Anderson is a brilliant director and His latest movie has racked up universal praise.Its a guarantee for a Best Picture nomination.

ParaNorman

Easily the best animated movie of 2012,ParaNorman should not only get nominated but also win it.ParaNorman has the edge over the other animated movies ,but its main competition will be Frankenweenie.

This is 40

The movie is yet to be released ,but by initial promos ,it looks like a classic Apatow movie.And Apatow movies dont make it into Oscars however good they might be.If This is 40 turns out to be great ,it might get the Best COmedy/Musical at the Golden Globes, but the Academy wont consider comedies.